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📊 How to Read a Residual Plot

Read residual plots to spot curvature, changing spread, outliers, and other clues about how well a regression model fits.

lessons

~10 min

to learn

🔬 Science

subject

Adults

level

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What you’ll learn

Read residual plotsDefine a residual and read the axes of a residuals-versus-fitted-values plot.Residuals are observed-minus-predicted leftovers, displayed against fitted values.
Recognize patternsDistinguish random scatter, curvature, and changing spread in residuals.Residual shape points to model form or variance problems.
Investigate cluesUse unusual residuals and normal probability plots to choose the next diagnostic step.Investigate outliers and distribution shape before changing a model.

Questions this course answers

What does a residual equal?

A residual records the observed outcome's signed difference from the model's prediction.

Which pattern most directly suggests that a straight-line form is missing curvature?

Systematic curvature means the model's average relationship is not capturing the shape in the data.

What does a fan-shaped residual cloud suggest?

A widening or narrowing cloud is evidence that error variance is not constant.

What is the best first response to an unusually distant residual?

An unusual residual may be an error, a valid rare case, or evidence of a missing feature, so it needs investigation.

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