Part 6

My object, so far, has been to mark the progress of ascertained theoretic notions as to Seismology. I have, therefore, passed without notice many speculative monographs, and the treatment upon Earthquakes, whether speculative or historical, and however able, that constitutes a prominent feature of nearly all systematic works on Geology.

That which may be at present viewed as achieved and certainly ascertained in theoretic Seismology is the clear conception of the nature of earthquake motion; the relations to it of great sea or other water wave commotions; the relations to it of sound waves--as to which, however, more remains to be known; and the relations of all these to secondary effects, tending in various ways to modify more or less the topographic and other conditions of the land or sea bottom. And in descriptive Seismology the present distribution of the earthquake bands or regions of greatest seismic prevalence and activity are tolerably ascertained, and their connection with volcanic lines and those of elevation rendered more evident. Viewed alone, nothing can yet be said to be absolutely ascertained as to the immediately antecedent cause or causes of the impulse. The function of Earthquake, as part of the cosmical machine, has become more clear, as the distinctive boundaries between Earthquake and permanent elevation of the earth have been made evident; and it has been seen that Earthquake, however contemporaneous occasionally with permanent elevation, is not the cause, though it may be one of the consequences of the same forces which produce elevation; and thus, that an infinite number of Earthquakes, however violent, and acting through however prolonged a time, can never act as an agent of permanent elevation, unless, indeed, on that minute scale in which surface elevation may arise from secondary effects, like that of the Ullah Bund.

Much remains to be done, and much may be expected even from the continuation, if done in a systematic and organised manner, of the statistic record of Earthquakes in connection with those other branches of cosmical statistics, Climatology, Meteorology, Terrestrial Magnetism, etc., the observation of which is already, to a certain extent, organised over a large portion of the globe.

And now let us look back for a moment to ask, How, by what mental path of discovery, have we arrived at what we have passed in review?

The facts of Earthquakes have been before men for unknown ages "open secrets," as Nature's facts have been well called; "but eyes had they and saw not." Facts viewed through the haze of superstition, or of foregone notions of what Nature ought to do, cease to be facts. When, after the great Calabrian Earthquake of 1783, the Royal Academy of Naples sent forth its commission of its learned members to examine into the effects, they had spread around them in sad profusion all that was necessary to have enabled them to arrive at a true notion of the nature of the shock, and thence a sound explanation of the varied and great secondary effects they witnessed, and of which they have left us the records in their Report, and the engravings illustrative of it. But we look in vain for any light; the things seen, often with distortion or exaggeration, are heaped together as in the phantasmagoria of a wild and terrible dream, from which neither order nor conclusion follow.

Why was this? Why were these eminent savants no more successful in explaining what they saw than the ignorant peasants they found in the Calabrian mountains?

Because physical science itself was not sufficiently advanced, no doubt; but also because they had no notion of applying such science as they had, to the very central point itself of the main problem before them, freed from all possible adventitious conditions, and so, as it were, attacking it in the rear. How different might have been the result of their labours, had they begun by asking themselves, What is an earthquake? Can we not try to find out what it is by observing and measuring what it has done? We see the converse mode of dealing with Nature in Torricelli. "Nature abhors a vacuum," was told him, as the wisdom of his day. Possibly: but her abhorrence is limited, for I find it is measured by the pressure of a column of water of thirty-four feet in height. We need not pursue the story with Pascal, up to the top of the Puy de Dôme.

This lesson is instructive generally to all investigators, and particularly here; for Vulcanology, to which we are about now to turn, has occupied until almost to-day much the same position that Seismology did in those of the Neapolitan Commissioners.

Whole libraries have been written with respect to it dealing with quality, but measure and quantity remain to be applied to it.

To a very preponderant class in the civilised world no knowledge is of much interest or value that does not point to what is called a "practical result," one measurable into utility or coin. I do not stop to remark as to the bad or as to certain good results of this tendency of mind; but I may venture to point out to all, that the exact knowledge of the nature of earthquake motion, even during the short time that it has become known, has not been barren in results absolutely practical and utilitarian. The minute investigation of the destruction of buildings, etc., and the deductions that have been made as to the relations between the form, height, materials, methods of building, combination of timber and of masonry, and many other architectural or constructive conditions, have made it certain now that earthquake-proof houses and other edifices can be constructed with facility, and at no great increase, if any at all, of cost. I can affirm that there is no physical necessity why in frequently and violently shaken countries, such as Southern Italy or the Oriental end generally of the Mediterranean, victims should hereafter continue by thousands to be sacrificed by the fall of their ill-designed and badly built houses.

Were a "Building Act" properly framed, put in force by the Italian Government in the Basilicatas and Capitanata, etc., so that new houses or existing ones, when rebuilt, should be so in accordance with certain simple rules, a not very distant time can be foreseen when Earthquakes, passing through these rich and fertile but now frequently sorely afflicted regions, should come and go, having left but little trace of ruin or death behind. Some disasters there must always be, for we cannot make the flanks of mountains, nor the beds of torrents, etc., always secure; but the main mortality of all Earthquakes is in the houses or other inhabited buildings. Make these proof, and the wholesale slaughter is at an end.

The principles we have established have been thus practically applied in another direction. The Japanese Government, with the keen and rapid perception of the powers inherent in European science which characterises now that wonderful people, has commenced to illuminate its coasts by lighthouses constructed after the best European models. But Japan is greatly convulsed by earthquakes, and lighthouses, as being lofty buildings, are peculiarly liable to be destroyed by them.

The engineer of the Japanese Government for these lights, Mr. Thomas Stevenson, C.E. (one of the engineers to the Commissioners of Northern Lights), was instructed to have regard, in the design of those lighthouses, to their exposure to shock. I was consulted by Mr. Stevenson as to the general principles to be observed; and those edifices have been constructed so that they are presumedly proof against the most violent shocks likely to visit Japan; not, perhaps, upon the best possible plan, but upon such as is truly based upon the principles I have developed. Mr. Stevenson has published some account of their construction.

The earthquake regions of South America might with incalculable benefit apply those ideas; and, indeed, they have been, to some extent, already applied by my friend, Mr. William Lloyd, Member of the Institution of Civil Engineers, to the New Custom Houses constructed from his designs at Valparaiso.

As one of these utilitarian views, and an important one, it will occur to many to ask--Can the moment of the occurrence or the degree of intensity of earthquake shock be predicted, or is it probable that at a future day we may be able to predict them? At present, any prediction, either of the one or the other, is impossible; and those few who have professed themselves in possession of sufficient grounds for such prediction are deceivers or deceived. Nor is it likely that, for very many years to come, if ever, science shall have advanced so as to render any such prediction possible; but it is neither impossible nor improbable that the time shall arrive when, within certain, perhaps wide, limits as to space, previous time, and instant of occurrence, such forewarnings may be obtainable.

Earthquakes, like storms and tempests, and nearly all changes of weather, are not periodic phenomena, nor yet absolutely uncertain or, so to say, accidental as to recurrence.

They are quasi-periodic, that is to say, some of their conditions as to causation rest upon a really periodic basis, as, for example, the recurrence of storms upon the periodic march of the earth, and sun and moon, etc., and the recurrence of Earthquakes upon the secular cooling of our earth; but the conditions in both are so numerous and complicated with particulars, that we cannot fully analyse them--hence, cannot reduce the phenomena to law, and so cannot predict recurrence. Yet storms and tempests--which were, along with pestilences and Earthquakes, amongst the natural phenomena which Bishop Butler deemed in his own day impossible of human prediction--have already, through the persistent and systematised efforts of meteorological observers, become to a certain extent foreseeable; and medical science assures us that it has rendered that, though to a much less degree of probability, true of pestilences.

We may, therefore, give the utilitarian some hope, that if he will help us along--who value our accessions of knowledge primarily upon a different standard to his--in our talk of discovery, our posterity, in a century or two hence, may not improbably possess the advantage of being able, in some degree, to predict their Earthquakes. I fear the inducement will go but a small way with the utilitarian generation, whose bent tends much towards asking, "What has posterity ever done for them?"

But though we cannot as yet predict the time when an Earthquake may take place in any locality, we can, on mixed statistic and dynamic grounds, in many cases state the limits of probable violence of the next that may recur. For example, the three shafts of marble columns of the Temple of Serapis, at Pozzuoli, each of about 41-1/2 feet in height, and 4 feet 10 inches in diameter at the base, remain standing alone, since they were uncovered, in the year 1750.

Now, as we can calculate exactly what velocity of earthquake-wave motion would be required to overset these, we are certain that, during the last one hundred and twenty-two years, the site of the Temple, and we may say Naples and the Phlegræan fields generally, have never experienced a shock as great as the very moderate one that would overset these columns. A shock whose wave particle had a horizontal velocity of only about 3-1/2 feet (British) per second would overturn these columns; which is only about one-fourth the velocity (within the meizoseismic area) of the great shock of 1857, that produced wide-spread destruction in the Basilicatas, and not enough to throw down any reasonably well-built house of moderate height.

Naples, so far as Earthquake is concerned, whether coming from the throes of Vesuvius or elsewhere, has a pretty good chance of safety. She may possibly (though not probably) be some day smothered in ashes; but is in little danger of being shaken to the earth. During this time there have been taking place, larger eruptions of Vesuvius and earthquake shocks from other centres, together probably about the same number of times as the numbers of those years, when those columns have been more or less shaken.

We may therefore affirm that the probability (on the basis of this experience only) is, say 120 to 1, that the next shock, whether derived from Vesuvius, or elsewhere, that may shake Pozzuoli, will be one less in power than would be needed to overturn the shafts of the Temple of Serapis there.

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Let us now turn to the second branch of our subject--viz., Vulcanology--upon which, as yet, we have secured less firm standing ground than we have seen we possess in Seismology, for which reason we took that first into consideration.

It is the part of Vulcanology to co-ordinate and explain all the phenomena of past or present times visible on our globe which are evidences of the existence and action, whether local or general, of temperatures within our globe greatly in excess of those of the surface, and which reach the fusing points of various mineral compounds as found arriving, heated or fused, at the surface.

The stratigraphic geologist sees that such heated or fused masses have come up from beneath, throughout every epoch that he can trace; but he cannot fail to discern more or less a change in the order or character of those outcomings, as he traces them from the lowest and oldest formations to those of the present day. He sees immense outpourings of granitoid or porphyrytic rocks that have welled up and overflowed the oldest strata--huge dykes filling miles of fissures that had been previously opened for the reception of the molten matter that has filled them, and often passing through those masses of previously outpoured rock; later he sees huge tables of basaltic rock poured forth over all. One grand characteristic common to all these--commonly called plutonic products--being that, whether they were poured forth over the surface or injected into cavities in other rocks, the movements of the fused material were, on the whole, hydrostatic and not explosive.

At the present day, whatever other evidences we have of high temperature below our globe's surface, that which primarily fixes the eye of the geologist is the Volcano, whose characteristic, as we see it in activity, is explosive. But though there is this great characteristic difference between the plutonic and the volcanic actions and their products, the two, when looked at largely, are seen so to inosculate, that it is impossible not to refer them to an agency common to both, however changed the modes of its action have been between the earliest epochs of which traces are presented to us and the present day.

To us little men, who, as Herschell has well said, in referring to the methods of measuring the size of our globe, "can never see it all at once, but must creep like mites about its surface," the Volcano, in the stupendous grandeur of its effects, tends to fix itself in our minds in exaggerated proportions to its true place in the cosmic machine; and, in fact, nearly all who have sought to expound its nature and mode of origination have occupied themselves far too exclusively with describing and theorising upon the strange and varied phenomena which the volcanic cone itself and its eruptions present, and too often, in the splendour and variety of these, have very much lost sight of what ought to be the centre-point of all such studies, namely, to arrive at some sound knowledge of what is the primum mobile of all these wonderful efforts. Nor has the distinction been very clearly seen between the main phenomena presented at and about volcanic active mouths, which can be employed to elucidate the nature of the causation at work far below, and those most varied and curious, and in other respects most pregnant and instructive phenomena, mechanical and chemical, which are called into action in and by the ejected matter of the volcanic cone after its ejection. It can help us but little or very indirectly, in getting at a true conception of the nature and source of the heat itself of the Volcano, to examine, for example, all the curious circumstances that are seen in the movements and changes in the lava that has already flowed from its mouth; but it would be of great importance if we can ascertain, by any form of observation around the cone, from what depth it has come, or at what depth the igneous origin lies.