Part 35

The war brought about great changes in the distribution of the world's shipping. Germany was practically eliminated as a shipping nation. The necessity of recouping the submarine losses, and of transporting troops and supplies led the United States to adopt a ship-building program that made her the second maritime country of the world. Lloyd's Register of Shipping gives the steam tonnage of the United Kingdom as 18,111,000 gross tons in June, 1920. For the same month the tonnage of the United States is given as 12,406,000 gross tons. Japan comes next with a tonnage of 2,996,000 gross tons. According to the same authority the United Kingdom had 41.6 per cent of the world's tonnage in 1914 and 33.6 per cent in 1920; while the United States had 4.7 per cent of the world's tonnage in 1914 and 24 per cent in 1920.

6. Wealth and Income

The economic advantages of the United States enumerated in this chapter inevitably are reflected in the figures of national wealth and national income. While these figures are estimates rather than conclusive statements they are, nevertheless, indicative of a general situation.

During the war a number of attempts were made to approximate the pre-war wealth and income of the leading nations. Perhaps the most ambitious of these efforts was contained in a paper on "Wealth and Income of the Chief Powers" read before the Royal Statistical Society. (See The London Economist, May 24, 1919, pp. 958-9.) This and other estimates were compiled by L. R. Gottlieb and printed in the Quarterly Journal of Economics for Nov. 1919. Mr. Gottlieb estimates the pre-war national wealth of Great Britain, France, Italy, Japan, Russia, Belgium, Germany, Austria-Hungary, Turkey and Bulgaria at 366,100 million dollars. At the same time the wealth of the United States was estimated at 204,400 million dollars. Thus the wealth of the United States was equal to about 36 per cent of the total wealth of the great nations in question.

The same article contains an estimate of pre-war national incomes for these great powers. The total is placed at 81,100 million dollars. The income for the United States is placed at 35,300 million dollars, or more than 43 per cent of the total.

The war has made important changes in the wealth and income of the principal powers. The wealth and income of Europe have been reduced, while the wealth and income of the United States have been greatly increased. This increase is rendered doubly emphatic by the demoralization in foreign exchange which gives the American dollar a position of unique authority in the financial world.

The latest wealth estimates (Commerce and Finance, May 26, and July 28, 1920) in terms of dollars at their purchasing-power value, makes the wealth of the whole British Empire 230 billions of dollars; of France, 100 billions; of Russia, 60 billions; of Italy, 40 billions; of Japan, 40 billions; of Germany, 20 billions, and of the United States, 500 billions. These figures are subject to alteration with the alteration of the exchange rates, but they indicate the immense advantage that is possessed by the business men of the United States over the business men of any or of all of the other nations of the world.

Before the war, the British were the chief lenders in the international field. In 1913 Great Britain had about 20 billions of dollars of foreign investments, as compared with 9 billions for France and about 6 billions for Germany. At the end of 1920, the British foreign investments had shrunk to a fraction of their former amount, while the United States, from the position of a debtor nation, had become the leading investing nation of the world, with over 9 billions of dollars loaned to the Allied governments; with notice loans estimated at over 10 billions; with foreign investments of 8 billions, and goods on consignment to the extent of 2 billions.

The United States therefore began the year 1921 with a greater financial lead, by several times over, than that which she held before the war, when she was credited with a greater wealth and a larger income than that of any other nation in the world. The extent of the advantage enjoyed by the United States at the end of 1920 cannot be stated with any final accuracy, but its proportions are staggering.

7. The Economic Position of the United States

Economically the United States is a world power. She occupies one of the three great geographical areas in the temperate zone. If she were to include Canada, Mexico and Central America--the territory north of the Canal Zone--she would have the greatest unified body of economic advantage anywhere in the world.

The United States is rich in practically all of the important industrial resources. She has a large, relatively homogeneous population, a great part of which is directly descended from the conquering races of the world. Almost all of the essential raw materials are produced in the United States, and in relatively large quantities. The period since the Spanish War has witnessed a rapid increase in wealth production. The war of 1914 resulted in an even greater increase in shipping. The investable surplus is greater in the United States than in any other nation, and in amount as well as in percent the national debt is less than that in any other important nation except Japan. Economically the position of the United States is unique. The masters of her industries hold a position of great advantage in the capitalist world.

XIV. THE PARTITION OF THE EARTH

1. Economic Power and Political Authority

Economically the United States is a world power. Her world position in politics follows as a matter of course.

While the American people were busy with internal development, they played an unimportant part in world affairs. They were not competing for world trade, because they had relatively little to export; they were not building a merchant marine because of the smallness of their trading activities; they were not engaged in the scramble after undeveloped countries because, with an undeveloped country of their own, calling continually for enlarged investments, they had little surplus capital to employ in foreign enterprises.

This economic isolation of the United States was reflected in an equally thoroughgoing political isolation. With the exception of the Monroe Doctrine, which in its original form was intended as a measure of defense against foreign political and military aggression, the United States minded its own affairs, and allowed the remainder of the world to go its way. From time to time, as necessity arose, additional territory was purchased or taken from neighboring countries--but all of these transactions, up to the annexation of Hawaii (1898) were confined to the continent of North America, in which no European nation, with the exception of Great Britain, had any imperative territorial interest.

The economic changes which immediately preceded the Spanish War period commanded for the United States a place among the nations. The passing of economic aloofness marked the passing of political aloofness, and the United States entered upon a new era of international relationships. Possessed of abundant natural resources, and having through a long period of peace developed a large working capital with which these resources might be exploited, the United States, at the beginning of the twentieth century, was in a position to export, to trade and to invest in foreign enterprises.

The advent of the World War gave the United States a dramatic opportunity to take a position which she must have assumed in any case in a comparatively short time. It had, however, one signal, diplomatic advantage,--it enabled the capitalist governments of Europe to accept, with an excellent grace, the newly acquired economic prominence of the United States and to recognize her without question as one of the leading political powers. The loan of ten billions to Europe; the sending of two million men at double quick time to the battle front; the immense increases in the production of raw material that followed the declaration of war by the United States; the thoroughness displayed by the American people, once they had decided to enter the war, all played their part in the winning of the victory. There were feelings, very strongly expressed, that the United States should have come in sooner; should have sacrificed more and profiteered less. But once in, there could be no question either of the spirit of her armies or of the vast economic power behind them.

When it came to dividing the spoils of victory, the United States held, not only the purse strings, but the largest surpluses of food and raw materials as well. Her diplomacy at the Peace Table was weak. Her representatives, inexperienced in such matters, were no match for the trained diplomats of Europe, but her economic position was unquestioned, as was her right to take her place as one of the "big five."

2. Dividing the Spoils

The Peace Conference, for purposes of treaty making, separated the nations of the world into five classes:

1. The great capitalist nations. 2. The lesser capitalist states. 3. Enemy nations. 4. Undeveloped territories. 5. The socialist states.

The great capitalist states were five in number--Great Britain, France, Italy, Japan and the United States. These five states dominated the armistice commission and the Peace Conference and they were expected to dominate the League of Nations. The position of these five powers was clearly set forth in the regulations governing procedure at the Peace Conference. Rule I reads: "The belligerent powers with general interests--the United States of America, the British Empire, France, Italy and Japan--shall take part in all meetings and commissions." (New York Times, January 20, 1919.) Under this rule the Big Five were the Peace Conference, and throughout the subsequent negotiations they continued to act the part.

The same concentration of authority was read into the revised covenant of the League of Nations. Article 4 provides that the Executive Council of the League "shall consist of the representatives of the United States of America, of the British Empire, of France, of Italy and of Japan, together with four other members of the League." The authority of the Big Five was to be maintained by giving them five votes out of nine on the executive council of the League, no matter how many other nations might become members.

It was among the Big Five, furthermore, that the spoils of victory were divided. The Big Five enjoyed a full meal; the lesser capitalist states had the crumbs.

The enemy nations were stripped bare. Their colonies were taken, their foreign investments were confiscated, their merchant ships were appropriated, they were loaded down with enormous indemnities, they were dismembered. In short, they were rendered incapable of future economic competition. The thoroughgoing way in which this stripping was accomplished is discussed in detail by J. M. Keynes in "The Economic Consequences of the Peace" (chapters 4 and 5).

The undeveloped territories--the economic opportunities upon which the Big Five were relying for the disposal of their surplus products and surplus capital, were carved and handed about as a butcher carves a carcass. Shantung, which Germany had taken from China, was turned over to Japan under circumstances which made it impossible for China to sign the Treaty--thus leaving her territory open for further aggression. The Near East was divided between Great Britain, France and Italy. Mexico was not invited to sign the treaty and her name was omitted from the list of those eligible to join the League. The German possessions in Africa and in the Pacific were distributed in the form of "mandates" to the Great Powers. The principle underlying this distribution was that all of the unexploited territory should go to the capitalist victors for exploitation. The proportions of the division had been established, previously, in a series of secret treaties that had been entered into during the earlier years of the war.