SECTION CCXL.. Influence of an Increase of the Means of Subsistence.

INFLUENCE OF AN INCREASE OF THE MEANS OF SUBSISTENCE.

The sexual instinct and the love for children are incentives of such universality and power, that an increase of the means of subsistence is uniformly followed by an increase in the numbers of mankind. Partout, où deux personnes peuvent vivre commodément, il se fait un mariage. (Montesquieu.) Thus after a good harvest, the number of marriages and births is wont to considerably increase; and conversely to diminish after bad harvests.[240-1] [240-2] [240-3] In the former case, it is rather hope than actual possession which constitutes the incentive to the founding of new families. Hence the greatest increase is not found in connection with the absolutely lowest price of corn, but with those prices which present the most striking contrast to those of a previous bad year.[240-4]

The introduction of the potato has promoted the rapid increase of population in most countries. Thus, the population of Ireland in 1695, was only 1,034,000; in 1654, when the cultivation of the potato became somewhat more common it was 2,372,000; in 1805, 5,395,000; in 1823, 6,801,827; in 1841, 8,175,000. In 1851, after the fearful spread of the potato-rot it fell again to 6,515,000.[240-5] In general, every new or increasing branch of industry, as soon as it yields a real net product is wont to invite an increase of population. Machines, however, have not this effect only when they operate to produce rather a more unequal division of the national income than an absolute increase of that income.[240-6]

============================================= | Between 1841 | In 1847 | and 1850. | alone. --------------+----------------+------------- In Saxony, | 15,505 | 14,220 In Holland, | 22,352 | 19,280 In Belgium, | 28,968 | 24,145 In France, | 280,330 | 249,797 =============================================

Horn, loc. cit. I, 167. In the governmental district (Regierungsbezirke) of Düsseldorf, there was in the years of scarcity, 1817 and 1818, one marriage for every 134 and 137 souls; on the other hand, in 1834 and 1835, in every 103 and 105. (Viebahn, I, 120 seq.) In England, the variations in the yearly price of corn are reflected in the variations in the number of yearly marriages. Thus, in 1800, 114 shillings per quarter; 1801, 122 shillings; 1802 (Peace of Amiens), 70 shillings; 1803, 58 shillings. The number of marriages in the four years respectively was 69,851, 67,288, 90,396, 94,379. (Porter, Progress of the Nation, III, ch. 14, 453.)

Similarly in Germany, in 1851, the conclusion of peace increased the number of marriages, and the scarcity of 1817 diminished it. In Prussia, in 1816, there was one marriage for every 88.1 of the population; in 1828, for every 121.4; in 1834 (origin of the great Zollverein), for every 104; in 1855, for every 136.4; in 1858 (hope of a new era), in every 105.9. (v. Viebahn, Statistik des Zollvereins II, 206.)

In Austria, the price of rye was:

============================================== | Per Metze. | No. of | | Marriages. ----------+--------------+-------------------- In 1851, | 2.47 florins | 336,800 In 1852, | 2.11 " | 316,800 In 1853, | 3.38 " | 283,400 In 1854, | 4.36 " | 258,000 In 1855, | 4.43 " | 245,400 (Czörnig.) ==============================================

On Sweden, see Wargentin in Malthus, II, ch. 2.

The decreased number of births in consequence of a bad harvest, and vice versa, appears of course only during the following calendar year. Thus, in 1847, as compared with the average of the years 1844 and 1845, there were fewer children born in England by 4 per 1,000, in Saxony by 7 per 1,000, in Lombardy by 59, in France by 63, in Prussia by 82, in Belgium by 122, in Holland by 159 per 1,000. (Horn, I, 239 ff.) In Germany, the conscription-years corresponding to the scarcity time, 1816-17, gave a minus of 25 per cent. in many places below the average. (Bernouilli, Populationistik, 219.) In the case of marriage, the relative increase or decrease is still more characteristic, so far as our purpose is concerned, than the absolute increase or decrease. Thus in Belgium, for instance, against 1,000 marriages dissolved by death, there were, in 1846, only 971 new ones contracted, and in 1847 only 747; while in 1850 there were 1,500. The falling off in Flanders alone was still greater. Thus, in 1847, there were only 447 marriages contracted for 1,000 dissolved. (Horn, I, 170 ff.) However, Berg, using Sweden as an illustration, rightly calls attention to the fact, that the variations in the number of marriages and births is determined in part by the number of adults, that is, of the number of births 20 and more years before. Compare Engel's Statist. Zeitschr., 1869, 7.]

======================================================== | Ten years' average. | 1849 alone. ------------+----------------------------+-------------- In France, | 36.19 | 35.79 In Tuscany, | 24.42 | 22.82 In Saxony, | 24.51 | 23.08 In Prussia, | 25.5 | 23.62 ========================================================

The great majority of men at that time believed all they liked to believe.]