Section CXXXIX.. History of Prices.—Californian and Australian Discoveries.

History Of Prices.—Californian And Australian Discoveries.

Tengoborski is of opinion, that the flow of gold from Siberia alone would have been absorbed by the ever-increasing want of civilized nations of money; but that the coincident discoveries in California and Australia, in September 1847, and February 1851, must sooner or later produce a revolution in prices. And, indeed, the fecundity of these countries is unparalleled. North America, which in 1846 produced only 3,600 pounds of gold, according to Sœtbeer, produced in the years from 1849 to 1863, respectively, 118,000, 148,000, 178,000, 195,000, 180,000, 165,000, 165,000, 165,000, 160,000, 145,000, 125,000, 120,000, 115,000 and 110,000. Austria produced in the years from 1851 to 1863 respectively, 27,000, 196,000, 250,000, 160,000, 170,000, 195,000, 180,000, 175,000, 160,000, 150,000, 160,000, 160,000, 170,000, pounds of gold.

From 1864 to 1867, the aggregate production of gold in the world was, according to the last mentioned authority, a yearly average of 188.4 millions of thalers, and of silver, 94.8 millions. In Europe, Russia not included, the production was, in 1863, 3,960 pounds of gold and 405,000 pounds of silver; in the Russian Empire, 46,500 pounds of gold and 40,000 of silver; in Mexico 12,000 pounds of gold and 1,250,000 pounds of silver; in South and Central America, 12,500 pounds of gold and 520,000 pounds of silver; in Africa, India and Lesser Asia, 30,000 pounds of gold and 40,000 pounds of silver—a total of 384,000 pounds of gold, and 2,905,000 pounds of silver. F.X. Neumann(861)(862) estimates that the whole world produced, in the years 1868-1870, annually, 192.8 million thalers of gold, and 94 million thalers of silver; and in 1873, of both metals, 291 million thalers.

The question, whether in this second half of the nineteenth century, we are to have a revolution in prices similar to that which took place in the sixteenth century can be answered only hypothetically. The gold diggings now most productive will, probably, as we may judge from analogous cases in the past, be soon exhausted.(863) But it is entirely possible that, for a long series of years, other diggings will be found equally rich. It is almost certain that the restless activity of the English and of North Americans will not cease until they have exhausted the favors of nature.(864) Every improvement in agriculture, in the means of communication, and in the public security of the gold lands, makes the cost of production smaller. There are doubtless in other countries a great many placers which need only to be touched with the finger of European civilization to produce gold in abundance.(865) It would, indeed, be necessary that this same civilization should make these same countries better markets for the precious metals by increasing their demand.

So far as silver is concerned, there can be no question that America possesses mines unlimited in extent, and, as yet, almost untouched. “The time will come,” says Duport,(866) “a century sooner or later, when the production of silver will have no other limits than those put to it by the continual decline in the price of silver.” There seems, also, to be no lack of quicksilver, especially in California; and the cost of its production hitherto may be lessened very much by the labor of better workmen, machines and means of transportation.(867) All this supposes great progress of the mining countries in civilization in general; and yet, thus far, Mexico’s republican independence etc., as compared with the later years of the Spanish colonial system there, is a great retrogression. The conquest of Spanish America by the United States would give a vast impetus to economic improvement; and here, again, the increase of production would be attended by an increased demand.

But especially must the demand for the precious metals, which naturally increases with the wealth, commerce and luxury of nations, constitute a decisive element in answering our question. Nothing, for instance, were a reduction in prices impending, would promote it so much as a series of devastating wars or revolutions in Europe. Moreover, it should not be forgotten, that the money market is now almost commensurable with the world, and will soon embrace it within its limits; and that market embraces not only the precious metals but the numberless representatives of money and media of credit. The basin, therefore, to which the gold and silver streams of the world are tributary is immeasurably greater than it was in the sixteenth century; its level cannot be changed as readily, and an equal addition made every year to its previous contents can increase it only by a small amount.(868) Nor could a considerable decline of the value of the precious metals be readily produced without making the circulation of money slower, and the employment of means of credit relatively less frequent, in consequence of which, the further decline would, to a certain extent, be arrested.(869) In the case of other commodities a decline of prices leads only probably to an absolutely greater demand; in the case of money, it leads to a demand necessarily greater. That the money market in our days can stand pretty rude shocks is evident from the fact, among others, that the price of gold is so high as compared with that of silver.(870)(871)