Part 2

When we spend this 21 million dollars, we are competing with all the other dollars in the marketplace, and prices have to go up as a result, because there are now more dollars but no more anything else. . .so dollars get cheap, and all dollars everywhere give up a percentage of their value to pay for an increase in the number of dollars WE have. So, if all these dollars lose 5% of their value, then we can buy a 20 million dollar share of the future with our 21 million dollars while everyone else loses 5% of the money they let sit in pockets, under the mattress, or wherever.

Half of the value of every dollar disappeared from 1979-1993 [a period in which the Cost/Price Indexes rose at about 6%].

And those 1979 dollars would buy only half as much as a 1969 dollar bought, when prices were rising even more quickly.

And those 1969 dollars were buying only half of what dollars bought in 1947.

Here are the doubling years:

2010 1993 1979 1969 1947 1916 and 1933 had similar costs, about half those of 1947; these fluctuations were caused by WW I and Depression 1898 was also a very low point, but prices before this had been quite stable by today's standards, with 1989 and 1899 being the only two exceptions: which happened to cancel each other out fairly well

Thus, approximately, prices in 2010 will be double what is the case in 1993, just as 1993 was double 1979; 1979 which was double 1969, which was double 1947, which was double a spread around WW I and the Depression.

With 1993 labeled as "1.00000" the value of a dollar which is expected to be spent in 2010 will be "0.50000" or fifty cents.

2010 $1 buys $0.50 worth of 1993 dollars 1993 $1 buys $1.00 worth of 1993 dollars 1979 $1 buys $2.00 worth of 1993 dollars 1969 $1 buys $4.00 worth of 1993 dollars 1947 $1 buys $8.00 worth of 1993 dollars 1916 and 1933 $1 buys $16.00 worth of 1993 dollars 1898 $1 buys $32.00 worth of 1993 dollars

Here are some less conservative estimates, from other sources:

Based on an estimated 17% increase from 1989 to 1993 [4%/year]

Prices doubled as follows:

1982 to 1993 1973 to 1982 1950 to 1973

1993 1.17xxxx 1978 0.573016 1968 0.299207 1946 0.153972

Note fluctuations for WWI, WWII, and Depression: these come close to these doublings, but not for a permanent trend.

1916 0.090478 1915 0.075394

1898 0.047620 Was the lowest trend:

which provides for the widest possible span of 1993 1.17xxxx to 1898 0.047620

with prices being some 25 times higher in 1993 than 1898, for price increase of 2400% over those 95 years.

Many of you have seen the figures I have presented as evidence of the fact that current trends lead to HOLDING THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS IN THE PALM OF YOUR HAND WITHIN THE AVERAGE LIFETIME. [Of course if they will let you HAVE the Library of Congress].

These figures range from the first 5 megabyte hard drives used in our very first mainframe, through the first 5M Apple drive, to the same drive running on an IBM, to our current 1.2G drive that cost less than ANY of our previous drives and has storage for twice as much data.

Of course, since I used only the real prices we paid for drive after drive, it was only a matter of time until the cost/price index would begin to play an important role, and we now have a database of drive prices long enough that the $3,000 price for the Konan 5M External ST506 Apple Hard Drive Kit in 1979 was a mere half of what it would be in today's 1993 dollars. Thus:

The first 5 1/4 hard drive we got [Seagate-ST506] should be at $6,000 in today's pricing index, or, conversely, we should see that the $850 we paid for a Toshiba 1.2G drive is really only:

$425 per 1200 megabytes. . .in 1979 dollars.

1971 $50,000 per 5M at $10,000 for the removable 5M drive chassis each 5M added was about $1500 1979 $3000 per 5M at $600/M [Same ST506 drive as I got in 1983, but 1980 set up as external drive for the Apple] 1981 Prices unstable early on 1982

Prices VERY stable now, falling by about 1/3 per year.

1983 $1500 per 5M at $300/M (Please see footnotes directly below)* 1984 $1950 per 10M at $195/M (only Seagate drive in 1985 Blue Book)* 1985 $1500 per 20M at $75/M (some disagreement about the year here) 1986 $1500 per 40M at $37.50/M 1986 $1595 per 80M at $20/M --> (IBM listed in Blue Book as 1984 price) 1987 $1500 per 80M at $19/M (but I never saw until two years later) 1988 $1500 per 120M at $12.50/M 1989 $1500 per 200M at $7.50/M 1990 $1500 per 300M at $5/M 1992 $1000 per 1000M at $1/M [In Summer 1993 we got a Toshiba 1200 Meg] 1993 $666 per 1000M at $.67/M [Actual cost was $.71/M at $850 per 1200M] 1994 $444 per 1000M at $.44/M [IBM in 1993 was $.50/M @ $4000 per 8000M] 1994 $296 per 1000M at $.30/M 1995 $198 per 1000M at $.20/M 1996 $132 per 1000M at $.13/M 1997 $88 per 1000M at $.08/M 1998 $58 per 1000M at $.06/M 1999 $39 per 1000M at $.04/M 2000 $26 per 1000M at $.03/M 2001 $17 per 1000M at $.02/M 2002 $12 per 1000M at $.01/M

Disclaimer: most of these are personal recollections, but are close to estimates I have looked up, as below. [How is it that 1985 and 1990 can seem so LONG ago!?!]