Part 3

As evidenced in the science-fiction treatment early machines got, the first computers were monsters at least in size. Pioneering design efforts on machines with the capacity of the brain led to plans for something roughly the size of the Pentagon, equipped with its own Niagara for power and cooling, and a price tag the world couldn’t afford. As often seems to happen when a need arises, though, new developments have come along to offset the initial obstacles of size and cost.

One such development was the transistor and other semiconductor devices. Tiny and rugged, these components require little power. With the old vacuum-tubes replaced, computers shrank immediately and dramatically. On the heels of this micro-miniaturization have come new and even smaller devices called “ferrite cores” and “cryotrons” using magnetism and supercold temperatures instead of conventional electronic techniques.

As a result, an amazing number of parts can be packed into a tiny volume. So-called “molecular electronics” now seems to be a possibility, and designers of computers have a gleam in their eyes as they consider progress being made toward matching the “packaging density” of the brain. This human computer has an estimated 100 billion parts per cubic foot!

We have talked of reading and translating. Some new computers can also accept voice commands and speak themselves. Others furnish information in typed or printed form, punched cards, or a display on a tube or screen.

Like us, the computer can be frustrated by a task beyond its capabilities. A wrong command can set its parts clicking rapidly but in futile circles. Early computers, for example, could be panicked by the order to divide a number by zero. The solution to that problem of course is infinity, and the poor machine had a hard time trying to make such an answer good.

Aeronutronic Division, Ford Motor Co.

This printed-circuit card contains more than 300 BIAX memory elements. Multiples of such cards mounted in computers store large amounts of information. ]

There are other, quainter stories like that of the pioneer General Electric computer that simply could not function in the dark. All day long it hummed efficiently, but problems left with it overnight came out horribly botched for no reason that engineers could discover. At last it was found that a light had to be left burning with the scary machine! Neon bulbs in the computer were enough affected by light and darkness that the delicate electronic balance of the machine had been upset.

Among the computer’s unusual talents is the ability to compose music. Such music has been published and is of a quality to give rise to thoughtful speculation that perhaps great composers are simply good selectors of music. In other words, all the combinations of notes and meter exist: the composer just picks the right ones. No less an authority than Aaron Copland suggests that “we’ll get our new music by feeding information into an electronic computer.” Not content with merely writing music, some computers can even play a tune. At Christmas time, carols are rendered by computers specially programmed for the task. The result is not unlike a melody played on a pipe organ.

In an interesting switch of this musical ability on the part of the machine, Russian engineers check the reliability of their computers by having them memorize Mozart and Grieg. Each part of the complex machines is assigned a definite musical value, and when the composition is “played back” by the computer, the engineer can spot any defects existing in its circuitry. Such computer maintenance would seem to be an ideal field for the music lover.

In a playful mood, computers match pennies with visitors, explain their inner workings as they whiz through complex mathematics, and are even capable of what is called heuristic reasoning. This amounts to playing hunches to reach short-cut solutions to otherwise unsolvable problems. A Rand Corporation computer named JOHNNIAC demonstrated this recently. It was given some basic axioms and asked to prove some theorems. JOHNNIAC came up with the answers, and in one case produced a proof that was simpler than that given in the text. As one scientist puts it, “If computers don’t really think, they at least put on a pretty creditable imitation of the real thing.”

Computers are here to stay; this has been established beyond doubt. The only question remaining is how fast the predictions made by dreamers and science-fiction writers—and now by sober scientists—will come to be a reality. When we consider that in the few years since the 1953 crop of computers, their capacity and speed has been increased more than fiftyfold, and is expected to jump another thousandfold in two years, these dreams begin to sound more and more plausible.

One quite probable use for computers is medical diagnosis and prescription of treatment. Electronic equipment can already monitor an ailing patient, and send an alarm when help is needed. We may one day see computers with a built-in bedside manner aiding the family doctor.

The accomplished inroads of computing machines in business are as nothing to what will eventually take place. Already computer “game-playing” has extended to business management, and serious executives participate to improve their administrative ability. We speak of decision-making machines; business decisions are logical applications for this ability. Computers have been given the job of evaluating personnel and assigning salaries on a strictly logical basis. Perhaps this is why in surveys questioning increased use of the machines, each executive level in general tends to rate the machine’s ability just below its own.

Other games played by the computer are war games, and computers like SAGE are well known. This system not only monitors all air activity but also makes decisions, assigns targets, and then even flies the interceptor planes and guided missiles on their missions. Again in the sky, the increase of commercial air traffic has perhaps reached the limit of human ability to control it. Computers are beginning to take over here too, planning flights and literally flying the planes.

Surface transport can also be computer-controlled. Railroads are beginning to use the computer techniques, and automatic highways are inevitable. Ships also benefit, and special systems coupled to radar can predict courses and take corrective action when necessary.

Men seem to have temporarily given up trying to control the weather, but using computers, meteorologists can take the huge mass of data from all over the world and make predictions rapidly enough to be of use.

We have talked of the computer’s giant strides in banking. Its wide use in stores is not far off. An English computer firm has designed an automatic supermarket that assembles ordered items, prices them, and delivers them to the check stand. At the same time it keeps a running inventory, price record, and profit and loss statement, besides billing the customer with periodic statements. The storekeeper will have only to wash the windows and pay his electric power bill.

Even trading stamps may be superseded by computer techniques that keep track of customer purchases and credit him with premiums as he earns them. Credit cards have helped pioneer computer use in billing; it is not farfetched to foresee the day when we are issued a lifetime, all-inclusive credit card—perhaps with our birth certificate!—a card with our thumbprint on it, that will buy our food, pay our rent and utilities and other bills. A central computer system will balance our expenses against deposits and from time to time let us know how we stand financially.

As with many other important inventions, the computer and its technology were spurred by war and are aided now by continuing threats of war. It is therefore pleasant to think on the possibilities of a computer system “programmed” for peace: a gigantic, worldwide system whose input includes all recorded history of all nations, all economic and cultural data, all weather information and other scientific knowledge. The output of such a machine hopefully would be a “best plan” for all of us. Such a computer would have no ax to grind and no selfish interests unless they were fed into it.

Given all the facts, it would punch out for us a set of instructions that would guarantee us the best life possible. This has long been a dream of science writers. H. G. Wells was one of these, suggesting a world clearinghouse of information in his book World Brain written in the thirties. In this country, scientist Vannevar Bush suggested a similar computer called “Memex” which could store huge amounts of data and answer questions put to it.

The huge amounts of information—books, articles, speeches, and records of all sorts—are beginning to make it absolutely necessary for an efficient information retrieval system. Many cases have been noted in which much time and effort are spent on a project which has already been completed but then has become lost in the welter of literature crammed into libraries. The computer is a logical device for such work; in a recent test such a machine scored 86 per cent in its efforts to locate specific data on file. Trained workers rated only 38 per cent in the same test!

The Boeing Co.

Engineers using computers to solve complex problems in aircraft design. ]

The science of communication is advancing along with that of computers, and can help make the dream of a worldwide “brain” come true. Computers in distant cities are now linked by telephone lines or radio, and high-speed techniques permit the transmission of many thousands of words per second across these “data links.” An interesting sidelight is the fact that an ailing computer can be hooked by telephone line with a repair center many miles away and its ailments diagnosed by remote control. Communications satellites that are soon to be dotting the sky like tiny moons may well play a big part in computing systems of the future. Global weather prediction and worldwide coordination of trade immediately come to mind.

While we envision such far-reaching applications, let’s not lose sight of the possibilities for computer use closer to home—right in our homes, as a matter of fact. Just as early inventors of mechanical power devices did not foresee the day when electric drills and saws for hobbyist would be commonplace and the gasoline engine would do such everyday chores as cutting the grass in our yards, the makers of computers today cannot predict how far the computer will go in this direction. Perhaps we may one day buy a “Little Dandy Electro-Brain” and plug it into the wall socket for solving many of the everyday problems we now often guess wrong on.

Royal McBee Corp.

Students at Staples High School, Westport, Connecticut, attend a summer session to learn the techniques of programming and operating an electronic computer. ]